Feinberg’s first predictions after nominations – The Hollywood Reporter


PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporterby Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at this ranking based on consultations with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and advertising campaigns, awards results that precede the Emmys, and the history of the Emmys itself.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Succession (HBO/HBO Max)
Breakup (AppleTV+)
squid game (Netflix)
yellow jackets (Show time)
You better call Saul (AMC)
stranger things (Netflix)
ozark (Netflix)
Euphoria (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
Abbott Elementary School (ABC)
hacks (HBO/HBO Max)
barry (HBO/HBO Max)
Only murders in the building (Hulu)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (First video)
What we do in the shadows (FX)
Calm your enthusiasm (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGICAL SERIES*

Projected finish order
The White Lotus (HBO/HBO Max)
Dope (Hulu)
The stall (Hulu)
Invent Anna (Netflix)
Pam and Tommy (Hulu)

*BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES*

Projected finish order
Last week tonight with John Oliver (HBO/HBO Max)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast (Seth Meyers)

*BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES*

Projected finish order
saturday night live (NBC)—podcast (Lorne Michaels)
A dark lady sketch show (HBO) — podcast (Robin Théde)

*BEST SPECIAL VARIETY (PRE-REGISTERED)*

Projected finish order
Dave Chappelle: Closest (Netflix)
Norm Macdonald: Nothing special (Netflix)
Adele one night only (SCS)
One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga (CBS) — podcast (Lady Gaga)
Harry Potter 20th Anniversary: ​​Return to Hogwarts (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)*

Projected finish order
Living in front of a studio audience: the facts of life and the different shots (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel and Norman Lear)
The 64th Annual Grammy Awards (CBS) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show with Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent (NBC) — podcast (Snoop Dogg)
The Tony Awards Present: Broadway is Back! (CBS) — podcast (Leslie Odom, Jr.)
The Oscars (ABC) — podcast (Amy Schumer)

*BEST TV FILM*

Projected finish order
Ray Donovan: the movie (Show time)
The survivor (HBO/HBO Max)
Renew 911! : The hunt for QAnon (Primary+)
Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers (Disney+)
Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas (The Roku Channel)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NON-FICTION SERIES*

Projected finish order
The Beatles: Come Back (Disney+) — podcast (Peter Jackson)
We need to talk about Cosby (Show time)
100 foot wave (HBO/HBO Max)
Andy Warhol’s Diaries (Netflix)
jeen-yuhs: a Kanye trilogy (Netflix)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NON-FICTION SPECIAL*

Projected finish order
We feed people (Disney+) — podcast (José Andres)
George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO/HBO Max) — podcast (Judd Apatow)
Controlling Britney Spears (New York Times Presents) (FX)
Lucy and Desi (First video)
The Tinder scammer (Netflix)

*BEST HOSTED NON-FICTION OR SPECIAL SERIES*

Projected finish order
The problem with Jon Stewart (AppleTV+)
My Next Guest Needs No Introduction Starring David Letterman (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman)
Stanley Tucci: In Search of Italy (CNN)
The world according to Jeff Goldblum (Disney+)
Vice (Show time)

*OUTSTANDING MERIT IN DOCUMENTARY MAKING*

Projected finish order
Change the game (Hulu)
When Claude got shot (PBS)
Frederick Douglass: In Five Discourses (HBO/HBO Max)

*BEST CONTEST PROGRAM*

Projected finish order
RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
Lizzo watch out for big grrrls (Prime Video) — podcast (Lizzo)
The voice (NBC)
Fantastic race (SCS)
Nailed it! (Netflix)
Excellent chef (Cheer)

*BEST STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected finish order
weird eye (Netflix)
shark tank (ABC) — podcast (Mark Cuban)
Love is blind (Netflix)
Fixer Upper: Welcome Home (Magnolia Network)
Antiques tour (PBS)

*BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected finish order
RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked (VH1) — podcast (RuPaul)
Cheer (Netflix)
sell sunset (Netflix)
Love on the US Spectrum (Netflix)
Under the Mediterranean Bridge (Cheer)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Lee Jung-jae (squid game) — podcast
Jeremy Strong (Succession) – podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) – podcast
Bob Odenkerk (You better call Saul) – podcast
Jason Batman (ozark) – podcast
Adam Scott (Breakup)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Zendaya (Euphoria) – podcast
Melanie Lynskey (yellow jackets)
Laura Linney (ozark)
Reese Witherspoon (The morning show) – podcast
Jodie Comer (Kill Eve) – podcast
Sandra Oh (Kill Eve) – podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Oh Young-soo (squid game)
Matthew McFadyen (Succession)
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Nicholas Brown (Succession)
Park Hae-soo (squid game) — podcast
John Turturro (Breakup) – podcast
Christopher Walken (Breakup)
Billy Crudup (The morning show)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Rhea Seehorn (You better call Saul) – podcast
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Julia Garner (ozark) — podcast
Patricia Arquette (Breakup)
Ho Yeon Jung (squid game) — podcast
Christine Ricci (yellow jackets)
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Sidney Sweeney (Euphoria)

*BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader(barry) — podcast
Martin Court (Only murders in the building)
Steve Martin (Only murders in the building)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Nicolas Hoult (Great)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary School) — podcast
John Smart (hacks)
Issa Rae (Insecure) — podcast
Kaley Cuoco (The stewardess) — podcast
Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) – podcast
Elle Fanning (Great) – podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Henry Winkler (barry) – podcast
Bret Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Anthony Carrigan (barry)
Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) – podcast
Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary School)
Bowen Yang (saturday night live)
Toheeb Jimoh (Ted Lasso)
Nick Mohammad (Ted Lasso)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A SECONDARY SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Hannah Einbinder (hacks)
Hanna Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Kate McKinnon (saturday night live)
Temple of Juno (Ted Lasso)
Janelle James (Abbott Elementary School)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary School)
Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected finish order
Michael Keaton (Dope) – podcast
Andrew Garfield (Under the banner of heaven) – podcast
Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)
Oscar Isaac (Scenes from a wedding) – podcast
Colin Firth (The staircase)
Himesh Patel (station eleven)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected finish order
Amanda Seyfried (The stall) — podcast
Julia Garner (Invent Anna) — podcast
Lily James (Pam and Tommy) — podcast
Toni Collet (The staircase)
Marguerite Qualley (Housemaid) — podcast
Sarah Paulson (Impeachment: A History of American Crime) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected finish order
Murray Bartlet (The White Lotus)
Michel Stuhlbarg (Dope)
Will Poulter (Dope)
Pierre Sarsgaard (Dope)
Jacques Lacy (The White Lotus)
Steve Zahn (The White Lotus)
Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A HIGH SCHOOL OR TV MOVIE*

Projected finish order
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Alexandra Daddario (The White Lotus)
Kaitlyn Dever (Dope) – podcast
Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus)
Connie Breton (The White Lotus)
Mare Winningham (Dope)
Sidney Sweeney (The White Lotus)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Colman Domingo (Euphoria)
James Crowell (Succession)
Tom Pelphrey (ozark)
Alexander Skarsgård (Succession)
Ariane Moayed (Succession)
Adrian Brody (Succession)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected finish order
Lee You-mi (squid game)
Harriet Walter (Succession)
Martha Kelly (Euphoria)
Marcia Gay Harden (The morning show)
Hope Davis (Succession)
Sana Lathan (Succession)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Jerrod Carmichael (saturday night live) — podcast
Nathan Lane (Only murders in the building)
Bill Hader(Calm your enthusiasm) — podcast
Christopher McDonald (hacks)
Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso)
James Lance (Ted Lasso)

*BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected finish order
Jane Lynch (Only murders in the building)
Laurie Metcalf (hacks)
Kaitlin Olson (hacks)
Harriet Sansom Harris (hacks)
Jane Adams (hacks)
Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso)

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